Even when pessimism makes sense, nothing tests it like a flurry of mixed signals.
After a summer that saw stocks rally and housing and oil prices cool off a bit, should we be surprised that Europe’s spiraling energy prices are prompting recession fears all over the continent? Here at home, we’re chugging along… but there’s rumors of a 50bps (maybe 75) rate hike from our friends at the Fed later this month.
This summer may have been a scorcher, (or depending on where you live, a flash flood…) but as they say repeatedly in Game of Thrones, winter is coming.
If the post-pandemic storm clouds have yet to break, they’re certainly looming.
Memes of the Day
What does that mean for finance?
In our neck of the woods, it means a couple things.
Kind of like a group of kids playing ‘hot potato’ we’ll see more and more banks passing their exposure to lenders like us. That means we’ll probably see an uptick in referrals from banks trying to unload credits… in all likelihood, the result of strict housekeeping and a sudden urge to do things by the book. Meetings between the big banks and their credit teams will range all the way from ‘throw shit overboard’ to ‘batten down the hatches.’
And while we’ll keep on grinding like always, we’ll see no shortage of crazy—like taxpayers shouldering between $1,200 and $2,000 apiece in what some are calling a ‘five-figure handout’ to the educated—on the national scene.
Just like we’ve been seeing it.
Up from the Ashes
But we’ll bank some optimism on a recurring fact of recessions—they create conditions in which many a new, innovative business opens shop. As an article in Business Insider reminds us, companies that began during a recession include more than a few household names:
-General Motors (started after the panic of 1907)
-Microsoft (during the oil embargo of 73’ to 75’)
-Uber, Airbnb, Groupon, and Venmo (great recession of 2007 – 2009)
And even Hewlett Packard (began in the recession of the 1930’s if you can believe that.)
If anything, we can take heart in the fact that downward cycles and belt-tightening have a way of wiping the slate clean for someone else to try. As they say in an old musical, up from the ashes, up from the ashes…grow the roses of success.
Dare to Give
Recession or not, it’s our mission.
We love it and we won’t be deterred; especially when the Hero’s Journey tells us that transformation comes only from dark struggles deep in the cave…struggles that might even have the foul smell of a looming recession.
We’re game for the journey if you are.
If you’re an entrepreneur looking for lending solutions, then give us a call and let us tell you about the Dare client experience.
We’re looking forward to it.
Meanwhile, hang in there.