We all freak out when the stock market tumbles.
But lest we forget, the bond market is much bigger than stocks—some three times larger at $119 trillion as of 2021. Factor in the U.S. bond market, which accounts for 39% of that, and you start to see why markets in Europe, Bangladesh, and more or less everywhere bob in our wake.
Now if bonds are coach seats on the airplane—putting aside some pretty bizarre incidents, still the safest way to travel—treasury bonds are first class. But what happens when the seats that come with pre-boarding, more legroom and free champagne lose a quarter of their value?
A treasury market decline that pushes higher costs on everyone commands our attention, at the very least.
As you probably know, those costs bleed through every sector. Even with turmoil in Washington, cowardly violence, and now war breaking out in the Middle East, we can’t ignore what we’re seeing here at home.
- Banks officially tightening credit
- Banks kicking deals out to raise liquidity
- Shipping volume dropping
- Sluggish homebuying
All this without a quote-unquote credit event yet.
That we haven’t seen one matching everyone’s prediction doesn’t mean one’s not cooking in the oven. Going by the forecast, this might mean we’re headed to the last place anyone on the Hero’s Journey wants to go—the foul, smelly cave where a supreme ordeal awaits.
Memes of the day
Facing the Shadow Self
In the cave, in war, in a recession, everything sharpens. Life as we know it hangs by a thread. Surrounded by darkness, the hero tenses, dreading a test that past beliefs and predictable experiences have, (unfortunately but to no surprise) not prepared him for.
Whatever that test looks like—watch any movie and take your pick—it will have elements of the hero’s biggest, deepest fear: a shadow version of himself.
Last month, I wrote about Raiders of the Lost Ark. To take that movie as an example (maybe an atypical one because this happens right out of the gate), Indy faces a shadow version of himself in Rene Belloq, a competing archaeologist with no scruples, superior resources from his Nazi sponsors, and one hell of a cackle. Throughout the movie, and for every snake-filled action sequence, it’s no mystery that Belloq admires Indy, covets what he has, and would rather he joined him—and that’s what tingles the spine.
He’s a perfect shadow reflection, a mirror of what a tarnished, fallen Indiana Jones could be with his virtues curdled into vice. To that end, and because he hasn’t sold his soul by joining team Third Reich, facing Belloq is a thorn in Indy’s side. Again and again, the challenge is seeing what he could become and looking away.
I could talk just as much about Darth Vader inviting Luke to join him.
Or Voldemort and Harry Potter.
Or the Sam Bankman-Fried – Chamath Palihapitiya types stalking the financial world in search of easy prey. Take your pick of Pied Pipers, but the archetype is the same—a shadow version of yourself that’s as dark as it is tempting.
But the story gets interesting when the hero rejects the shadow’s offer. Again and again, Indy refuses, choosing to fight it out instead… and before we know it, the ordeal in the cave has done its work.
But we can accept that challenge in the hard paths we choose every day.
Paths like staying honest when others cheat.
Not panicking when others lose their shit.
Pausing, reflecting when a hard lesson presents itself—and not giving up.
Taking setbacks not as calamities, but as good opportunities to do more of our math.
For Dare Capital, the decline in treasury bonds means one more thing—more phone calls from people in battered industries. Trucking, construction, staffing, start-ups. We relish the fact that those out of favor with banks keep finding their way to us. If entering the cave means more lessons, more of the journey, and more entrepreneurs finding the capital they need, then challenge accepted.
Good stories don’t die in the shadows.
All in the Journey
We love helping growing companies unlock the next level—and the same goes for investors looking for a White Label Portfolio.
Back Room Service you won’t find around the corner.
Partnering with Dare Capital means:
- Greater income (a lot more)
- Owning assets instead of commissions
- Zero investment down
- No personal liability
- Fifty-fifty split on risks and profits
If that sounds like a journey worth taking, don’t be shy. Give us a call and we’ll tell you more about it.
Until next time,