As a nation, it feels like we’re sprinting up a mountain without noticing our own breath. In Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, we get the sage advice that life’s mountains should be climbed with as little effort as possible and without desire. When you’re restless, speed up. When you’re winded, slow down.
Right now, we’re gunning straight towards an undefined summit, ignoring the sides of the path, and pretending each shaky foothold isn’t a warning.
We’re watching the government shutdown become the scapegoat for whatever comes next. 50-year mortgages are now on this year’s Christmas lists. October economic data may “never be released” due to “permanent” harm to federal systems. Anyone still working at the BLS? Bueller?
Wells Fargo just issued the kind of warning Wall Street loves to try and bury: a hush-hush downgrade of tech from “outperform” to “neutral.” Not bearish, just neutral. Wall Street’s coded way of saying take your profits before someone else does.
Today’s market is priced for perfection: flawless AI growth, no geopolitical shocks, infinite energy scaling, and zero margin for error. Meanwhile, 90% of Nvidia’s production sits in Taiwan, SoftBank already exited billions, and Japan and China are tightening their stances.
And underneath it all, the real economy is rolling over. The U.S. truckloads index just hit its lowest level since 2014, a freight recession signal that always shows up before the consumer data turns south.
This week, AI’s in the hot seat, specifically jobs (or a lack thereof) and signals that the bubble could be at a breaking point. But we’ll end this leg of the journey on a high note and why we should never bet against the U.S.
Labor Market Make-Believe
The “strong labor market” tall tale continues to unravel as the data gets harder to spin. Over the last three months, the U.S. added an average of just 3,000 private-sector jobs, the slowest pace we’ve seen since the 2020 recession. A year ago, we were adding over 200,000. We’re beyond needing a press briefing to tell us something’s off.
The Mag 7 all slammed the brakes on U.S. hiring at almost the exact same time (late 2022 into early 2023) and they’ve kept them locked ever since. Not because the economy softened, but because redirecting work to offshore GCCs cuts labor costs by up to 70%.
The side effect: U.S. tech job postings are 36% below pre-COVID levels, while India’s are up nearly 50%. At the same time, layoffs at home are accelerating. October saw the highest monthly layoff count in 22 years.
It’s a strange split-screen moment: the administration talks about stability and strength while workers watch their industries bottom out and their expenses climb. As Ron Paul pointed out this week, some things just can’t be faked.
Cracks in the AI Cathedral
In the span of a few days, SoftBank dumped its entire Nvidia position. Oracle got hit with a debt downgrade, Meta was exposed for running elaborate financing schemes, and Sam Altman still couldn’t explain how OpenAI plans to cover $1.4 trillion in promised spending. CoreWeave, the engine behind so much manufactured AI demand, fell 20% in a week.
And then, there’s institutional pressure. The Secret Service paid a visit to GamersNexus after their report on Nvidia’s export violations. Their new investigative series digs into antitrust issues and AI-driven surveillance tech that’s already creeping into government contracts.
Meanwhile, OpenAI asked the Trump administration to expand CHIPS Act tax credits…not for chip manufacturing, but for data centers. Altman hopes he’s too big to fail and not just too big for his britches.
It feels like we’re living in a current moment mashup of 2000 and 2008: bubbles built on government backstops and hopium-laced storytelling. Sure, AI as a technology might survive, but the companies propped up by hype and political favoritism won’t.
America’s Climb Continues
Warren Buffett’s core message has barely changed in 60 years: betting against America has been the wrong call every single time. He points to one simple fact: real GDP per capita has risen sixfold since 1930, driven not by harder work but by a system that’s famous for turning ideas into output.
Even modest 2% growth compounds into generational gains, which is why Buffett shrugs off election-year doom cycles. The long arc still bends toward higher living standards.
That doesn’t mean the ride up the mountain is always smooth. Buffett’s always acknowledged recessions, bubbles, political chaos, and painful resets, the same turbulence we’re feeling now.
His message is bigger than any single downturn: America stumbles, overreacts, has an occasional meltdown, but its capacity to rebuild and reinvent has never, ever failed.
The next few quarters may be rough, but the long-term bet hasn’t changed. While we’re scaling this impossible mountain, we need to go one step at a time. And even though we’re eager to see the view from the top, it’s worth slowing down to take it all in.
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