If the last few weeks have made anything clear, it’s that markets aren’t drifting higher all on their own. They’re intentionally being engineered there. A once-in-a-generation mix that’s forming a kind of policy-backed bull case where liquidity is a strategic priority.
Depending on where you fit into this new-wave math, you could be riding high or gasping for breath. As we’ve preached on this pulpit many times before, diving into the abyss with discernment and an open mind is the only hero’s path forward.
Our ability to adapt is the new currency. In the words of Blind Melon, “when life is hard, you have to change.”
This week, we cover the latest growth narrative, winds of change in trucking, and our current economic mixed signals.
Memes
Bull Moon Rising
We can feel a bull case building. Markets are getting a once-in-a-generation alignment: an AI spending boom, massive tech CapEx, deregulation impulses, and a White House openly positioning stocks as a national priority.
Ending QT and drifting toward rate cuts would put monetary momentum behind everything from equities to housing. Meanwhile, deficit spending north of $2 trillion continues to drip fuel into demand. Whether you believe the narrative or not, this is the first time in years where the macro story and the political story are both pointing in the same direction: up and to the right.
Every signal coming out of D.C. says asset prices are now explicitly a policy goal. Trump’s openly promising “all-time highs” and calling for more leverage, all while talking of stimulus and mortgage relief. Markets have become the retirement system, the collateral system, and the tax base. If asset prices fall, the government’s solvency math breaks and that logic pushes policymakers toward liquidity over restraint.
In this setup, housing turns into a political weapon. Rate cuts combined with mortgage support and AI-era liquidity amounts to another leg higher in housing demand (even with structurally tight supply). If Fannie and Freddie IPO under a mandate to push mortgage rates down, you’ve basically married housing affordability to market performance and electoral incentives.
Keep Truckin’
After a brutal two-year downcycle, trucking just caught a rare double tailwind: supply tightening from aggressive compliance enforcement and a sudden surge in demand indicators. DHS and FinCEN are removing entire pockets of non-compliant capacity. Seasonal exits are thinning the ranks and a sizable cohort of foreign drivers may not return after the holidays.
At the same time, consumer volumes exploded over Thanksgiving. Mortgage applications are climbing, which is historically one of freight’s strongest leading indicators. Brokers are also reporting the best flow they’ve seen since COVID. What looked like a flat market two months ago suddenly feels much tighter.
Big banks are already connecting the dots. Citi is calling the early stages of a bull run in trucking rates as shippers scramble to recover freight in a capacity-starved market. For the first time in years, tenders are falling off and spot recovery is back. These classic early-cycle signals show up before the headlines catch on.
If demand holds even modestly while enforcement keeps squeezing the bottom of the market, 2026 could be the first constructive year for carriers since the pandemic.
Factory Freeze, Consumer Squeeze
Diving into recent economic happenings, manufacturing job growth is seeing red while tariff whiplash and Fed complacency choke off investment. Instead of an industrial revival, companies are navigating policy uncertainty with no incentive to expand, which is exactly the opposite of the manufacturing renaissance narrative.
We also had record Black Friday spending of $11.8B (up 9.1% YoY), but underneath those numbers, shoppers actually bought fewer items. Prices climbed and average selling prices rose 7% YoY while order volumes fell 1%. Americans are spending more for less. The inflation we aren’t supposed to talk about is printed right on our receipts.
Outside the AI hype cycle, the corporate body count quietly rises. The US logged 9 Chapter 7 bankruptcies with $100M+ in liabilities this year. That’s the 4th-highest on record and worse than the aftermath of the financial crisis on a per-year basis. Only about 5% of large corporate bankruptcies go this route, which means companies aren’t even able to finance a turnaround.
This distress is concentrated in non-AI sectors. Zoom out and the picture gets stranger: AI contributed 62.5% of US GDP growth in 2025, while traditional commercial investment (offices, warehouses, factories) is essentially flat.
Data-center spending is up 300% in three years, but most of the big AI names can’t afford the cloud computing they’ve already contracted. OpenAI alone faces a $207B funding hole, even under wildly optimistic adoption assumptions. HSBC’s conclusion that OpenAI may have to “walk away” from its cloud commitments is code for something harder: if AI wobbles, there’s no actual industrial economy beneath it to catch the fall.
View From the Edge
If this year has taught us anything, it’s that markets are stepping into their own Hero’s Journey. A call to adventure, a perilous road, unlikely allies, and more than a few dragons. And every Hero’s Journey demands a refusal of the old world and the willingness to change when the story gets difficult.
As we paddle on, remember this wisdom from John Irving: “If you don’t feel that you are possibly on the edge of humiliating yourself, of losing control of the whole thing, then probably what you are doing isn’t very vital.”
Whether you’re a warrior on the front lines or a hometown hero, doing it scared is simply a duty on our job descriptions.
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Until next time,
