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Forward Through the Fog
A K-shaped economy, capacity crunch in trucking, and policy-driven markets define this brave new world. Here’s what’s rising and what’s breaking.
Bracing for a Brave New World
A K-shaped economy, capacity crunch in trucking, and policy-driven markets define this brave new world. Here’s what’s rising and what’s breaking.
Hard Path, Higher Peaks
Markets, trucking, and AI all pivoting at once. Policy tailwinds meet economic tension. Adaptation is no longer optional.
Finding Zen on the Way Up the Mountain
As labor weakens and AI hype frays, we trace the cracks and end with Buffett’s reminder that America still climbs higher over time.
Between Fear and Forward Motion
When fear spreads, everything else seems to contract with it. Anaïs Nin captured that truth simply: “Life shrinks or expands in proportion with one’s courage.” The headlines are full of contraction in the form of layoffs, credit losses, and spending fatigue. And courage often decides what happens next: retreat or reinvention.
Growth Without Gravity
Marcus Aurelius once asked: “What are you so afraid of losing when nothing in this world belongs to you?”
It’s a reminder worth revisiting, especially in markets obsessed with control. We spend our days tracking data and forecasting risk, but the truth is none of it’s really ours. Time, capital, and opportunity all move on without permission. Maybe freedom starts when we loosen our grip.
The Glamour Fades, The Pattern Remains
In the movie Margin Call, Jeremy Irons delivers a line that strips Wall Street of its glamour: “It’s just money. It’s made up… It’s all just the same thing over and over.”
Every boom-and-bust cycle plays out like a myth. The same Hero’s Journey on repeat, with new characters and a familiar ending. Markets love to tell us we’re living through something new. Tulips in 1637, dot-coms in 2000, AI in 2025…the costumes change, but the script stays the same.
Uncovering Truth in the Tension
Momentum and liquidity create our current Road of Trials. Markets celebrate, policymakers cling to “resilience,” and each weak data point is waved away as noise. These are the tests every cycle (and hero) must endure: minor fractures that hint at a coming break.
The bubble can mask weakness for a time, but the gap always closes. Asset prices are tethered to growth, and when the economy bends, markets eventually break. Here are some of the latest cracks:
Uncovering Truth in the Tension
Rilke’s words are the perfect summary of a market caught between extremes. Wall Street’s highs mask Main Street’s stress. Under the surface, the cracks are compounding: labor, housing, and the consumer.
In a crash, the danger can be found in the calm that comes before it. Reality whispers a new story under the surface of old headlines.
Momentum or Make Believe?
Every hero’s arc has a turning point. When the narrative slips, and a quiet voice whispers: there’s more to this than meets the eye.
Take the labor data. We’re told hiring is strong until the BLS quietly rewrites the story. Last month’s 258K downward revision wasn’t an error. It was business as usual.
